So we know that in the traditional stock market the big players have sold record high amounts of their stock portfolio. aka elon musk, jeff bezos, walton family, mark zuckerberg all sold large amount of their stocks. record amounts of it in comparison to previous years.
they say its to cover CGT but that doesnt make any sense. they would just take a loan out on the value of theirs stocks if they had faith in the market and avoid CGT. i also dont trust elon at all, very much a does the opposite of what he says, aka hyped people into the last 64000 top for bitcoin and the crypto market. so im fairly sure we are expecting the general stock market to go down harshly at some point in near future. especially the tec stocks that ran hot during the covid crisis.
its important to remember this is on the backbone of high inflation, likely planned by central banks to inflate away their debt obligations. while i do beleive over a few year period that the cost of the good assets will continue to rise. a massive dip in the market, potentially related to evergrande, potentially related to high amount of leverage and debt is very possible. but with the big players now holding cash they would obviously plan to buy back in at the bottom. just because we know that the cost of goods and assets will increase over 10 years doesnt mean a massive market crash isnt possible.
there is also the the christmas effect which hasnt played out in either market. usually the market will rise into the christmas period and then a sell off occurs as people need to sell to cover the years CGT from their trading over the year. perhaps the sell off was being front run to a degree. and these dips are whales causing sell offs too one cover their bills and two use the left overs to buy back in lower.
important to remember that the on chain analytics for crypto look promising in that big players are accumulating during these dips.
my real question is what happens to crypto if the worst plays out. so far crypto has been very correlated to the traditional stock markets. my thoughts are that there is a lot of crap coins out there. and a further wash out of them isnt a bad thing. also has me a little worried about the nfts i hold that i dont want to sell into loss. gaming coins are another while some of these might be worth a lot someday the valuations given without working products is too high in my opinion
i feel that peoples general sentiment is that we run into q1 maybe q2 of 2022. which seems like the most promising and most likely scenario. which is what makes me think it may not play out as people think. a shorter run up and hype train into a more widespread stock market and even crypto market crash, related to the correlation between the two. followed by some accumulation leading too a end of 2022 / 2023 top as inflation once again takes hold.
i do buy into the idea of the path of most pain for leverage traders. and think this would be it. as people at that point people would be genuinely scared and would be sure that market is over. presently the hodl mentality is still very strong. there would need to be a real scare to get most of these hodlers to sell. the market has matured significantly and retail traders cant really compete with VC capital and hedge funds. big blow off tops and v shaped recoveries are unlikely as it gives these firms less time to buy and sell off. we are much more likely to see these distribution patterns in the future, with massive sell offs as needed. as its relaly not that hard to cause margin calls leading to a long liquidation cascade.
while my thoughts are a little scattered, im curious as to your thoughts as to what happens next, and your thoughts on the big names selling in the traditional markets.
edit: TLDR as requested
Big players would only be selling their stocks if they were expecting a potentially very large crash coming to a stock market near you soon. when exactly is anyones guess, but likely not as far away as we might hope